Brace for weather chaos! El Niño is RAPIDLY strengthening, experts say – and the
Super El Niño has officially begun in the tropical Pacific and is now rapidly strengthening, scientists warn.
The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest forecast shows that El Niño conditions are forecast to grow into a ‘strong’ event during July to September this year.
According to weather models, ocean surface temperatures are showing a ‘consistent and significant warming’ across the key central and eastern Pacific regions.
Experts now predict that water temperatures will exceed 2°C (3.6°F) above average in the critical areas driving the El Niño cycle.
The WMO expects that El Niño will continue to strengthen through autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, with an influence covering many regions of the globe.
Meanwhile, other ocean areas such as the equatorial Atlantic Basin are also predicted to stay well above average.
This natural warming cycle is expected to exacerbate the weather-altering effects of climate change, leading to potentially catastrophic extreme weather around the globe.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo says: ‘This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.’
The World Meteorological Organization warns that El Niño is strengthening rapidly and could trigger extreme weather and heat around the world. Pictured: Map showing the probability of a given area experiencing above-average heat
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring weather cycle, which is one of the biggest drivers of year-to-year weather variations.
Every two to seven years, the cycle shifts between a cooling La Niña phase and a warming El Niño phase.
Normally, the trade winds blow westwards across the Pacific, transporting warm water away from South America towards Australia and allowing colder water to well up along the coast.
During the El Niño phase of the cycle, these winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to build up in the tropical Pacific.
That concentration of warm water can raise the global average temperature and disrupt weather patterns on a global scale.
This month, scientists confirmed that the ocean surface in the Pacific has now warmed past the threshold for El Niño conditions to officially begin.
However, experts now predict that the weather pattern is only going to strengthen as time goes by.
Over the oceans, the Pacific already shows the footprint of a rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with more than 80 per cent likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Experts forecast that El Niño will continue to strengthen from July to September as waters in the equatorial Pacific warm
Ms Saulo says: ‘El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts.’
The El Niño weather pattern typically reaches its peak in November and February, exerting its strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following its onset.
The exact impacts an El Niño triggers vary depending on its intensity, the time of year it forms, and how it interacts with other ongoing climate events.
But in almost all cases, this weather pattern leads to increased global temperatures and extreme weather around the globe.
According to the WMO’s predictions, there is now an ‘overwhelming likelihood’ of above-average temperatures on land between 60°S and 60°N, which includes almost all populated regions on Earth.
This comes as Europe already grapples with a record-breaking heatwave that has sent temperatures soaring.
In the UK, the record for the hottest June day was broken as a temperature of 37.3°C was recorded in Santon Downham, in Suffolk.
Similarly, provisional figures reveal that the UK has just sweltered through the hottest June on record.
This comes after the UK experienced its hottest June on record, with an average temperature of 17.1°C last month, surpassing the previous record of 16.9°C set in 2025
El Niño is also expected to affect global patterns of precipitation, leading to lower-than-average rainfall in northern Europe
According to the Met Office, the average temperature was 17.1°C last month, surpassing the previous record of 16.9°C set in 2025.
Meanwhile, France has been facing deadly heat conditions that have already been linked to 1,300 deaths.
While the current heatwaves are not caused by El Niño, experts say we can also expect extreme heat ‘almost everywhere’ as the weather pattern intensifies this summer.
Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, says: ‘Two deadly heatwaves in the last two months have shown how dangerous climate change impacts have become at 1.4°C of global average temperature rise.
‘Now an intensifying El Niño is set to add more heat into our climate, driving temperatures up almost everywhere in the coming months.’
While its influence on British weather is indirect, a particularly strong El Niño event could raise global temperatures and supercharge the heating effects of climate change, as well as reducing rainfall across Northern Europe.
Simon Culling, a prominent data collector and investigator for the UK’s Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), wrote on X: ‘If the current predictions for the forthcoming El Niño phase are realised, what does this mean for the UK?
‘It may mean hotter summers for both 2026 and 2027 and increases the risk of a significant cold spell in winter 2026/27. Let’s see what plays out.’