Scientists reveal the most exciting World Cup games so far – and none of England’s

As the end of the World Cup inches closer, scientists have already started to reminisce on the most exciting games of the tournament. 

Experts from Northeastern University have built a new algorithm that measures and ranks World Cup games for their level of excitement. 

The model assesses five key factors – stakes, chances, drama, spectacle, and payoff. 

Overall, it gives each game a rating from 0 to 10, with 10 being the most exciting game you could watch. 

According to the model, Belgium’s game against Senegal tops the list as the most exciting game so far, scoring an impressive 9.65/10. 

This is just ahead of Norway’s match against the Ivory Coast, which scored 9.49/10. 

However, England fans might be surprised to learn that none of England’s clashes have even made it into the top 10. 

Professor Brennan Klein acknowledged: ‘Reducing soccer to data risks stripping out some of its human richness – such as the Mexico–England match which, despite a tense atmosphere and exciting finish, didn’t crack the top 10.’

According to the model, Belgium’s game against Senegal tops the list as the most exciting game so far, scoring an impressive 9.65/10

Norway’s match against the Ivory Coast scored 9.49/10, making it the second most exciting game of the tournament so far

The algorithm, dubbed the ‘Excitement Ranking’, evaluates the five factors using over 3,400 data points. 

Stakes – what the result means for both squads, and what stage of the tournament the game was in – account for 24 per cent of the score. 

Chances – the quality of scoring chances, the shot volume and shots on target, alongside the quality of goalkeeper saves – account for 20 per cent. 

Drama – momentum swings, lead changes, and amount of time the game was tied or within a goal – accounts for 20 per cent. 

Spectacle – the gameplay itself – makes up 24 per cent, while Payoff is the remaining 12 per cent. 

‘[This is] goals, weighted by the tension they release,’ the researchers explained. 

‘Think of it like an 89–minute equalizer rates higher than a team’s sixth goal in a rout.’

According to the analysis, Belgium’s match against Senegal during the Round of 32 was the most exciting game so far. 

England fans might be surprised to learn that none of England’s clashes have even made it into the top 10. Pictured: England vs Mexico

This hugely talked–about game saw Belgium come back from 2–0 down with five minutes of normal time left to win 3–2 after extra time and knock Senegal out.

Norway’s match against Ivory Coast in the Round of 32 is rated at the second most exciting game by the algorithm. 

This was another nail–biting match, in which a late Erling Haaland winner sent Norway through after Ivory Coast had fought back. 

With a score of 9.47/10, Paraguay’s clash with Germany is third on the list, ahead of Argentina vs Cape Verde (9.46), and Norway vs Brazil (9.43). 

If you don’t agree with the list, don’t panic – the researchers acknowledge that the model has ‘limits’, and doesn’t take into account ‘human richness’. 

‘The project [is] a way to better understand what draws viewers into a match,’ the researchers said. 

The list comes shortly after the same research team revealed that the number of red cards issued has more than tripled compared with the past two tournaments. 

The scientists reviewed match data, and found that a whopping 13 red cards have already been given out in North America.

For comparison, just four were issued in both 2018 and 2022. 

So, what’s behind this rise in red cards?

According to the experts, advancements in the video assistant referee (VAR) are largely to blame. 

‘Three of the red cards issued, for example, were initially designated as yellow–card offenses but were upgraded after referees viewed the VAR footage, the data shows,’ they explained. 

‘Those included Qatar’s Homam Ahmed’s last–man foul on Canada’s Tajon Buchanan in a group–stage match on June 18; Qatar’s Assim Madibo’s leg–breaking tackle on Canada’s Ismaël Koné in that same group–stage match; and Iraq’s Rebin Sulaka’s DOGSO on Senegal’s Sadio Mané in a group–stage match on June 26.’